Glidemet

I have to say that when I briefly looked at the ladder on Tuesday evening I was worried that I’d over-egged the day. Since then though lots of flights have been added, including several crackers from Sutton Bank to Scotland and back. I was really hoping to see that. (Yeah, and the 13 syndicate did 99% of Dunstable—Scotland—Dunstable. FAIL!  )

Tomorrow (Thursday) sees the remains of the warm front fading out and hence although it will be convective it will generally tend to early and extensive spreadout pretty much everywhere apart from the eastern Highlands!

Friday is when things improve with the damp air continuing to ease away eastwards. The west is where the good air will be with Cumbria—Wales—SW peninsula all looking good for about 4,000 ft but not too much spreadout. A hint of an easterly flow will retard in the inland penetration of the sea breeze in these areas, keeping the good area larger for longer. The east of the country probably still too claggy for anything good.

Saturday is looking a rather fine day. The residual moisture has been off-set by subsidence warming the airmass through compression reducing the relative humidity. Upshot is a fairly low inversion, about 4-5,000 ft, but a low risk of spreadout, so good cumulus over most of the country south of about Leeds; remains a bit damp further north. However an easterly flow of about 10 knots at height will encourage strong sea breeze penetration a long way inland all down the east coast, so careful task setting will be required. A good day though.

Sunday looks similar, with less wind but cumulus bases a bit lower with a risk of spreadout due to moisture advected in from the North Sea over night. Of course we’re talking about five days ahead so detail like that is subject to change.

A rough-and-ready outlook is for something of a northerly flow to return early next—-chilly! And with a long sea track, probably rather cloudy. We’ll see.

And who are also checking here (why?? )—-did you get tonight’s (“Monday”) forecast twice? Might be a wee bug in the system. (This post is in the “information” category, so should not be emailed out, unless you actively chose to subscribe to it.)

Flight of the day belongs to… well, yeah, it’s the 13 syndicate again. But this time only because:

1. They flew over where I’m currently working (in Oxfordshire)
2. They flew over my house in Exeter (well, close to it, certainly within sight)
3. They then flew over where I was working. Again. I could have seen them over DID had I looked up at the right moment.

Considering that the same journey by car would have taken the same six hours that the pilots took to fly the task, that’s… quite cool.

Tomorrow (Tuesday), despite the cirrus lurking about the south of England at the moment, doesn’t look that bad. Said cirrus moves off to the south overnight, while most of England and Wales stays in thermic air. The north of England will be the best area, with good bases to over 4,000 ft by mid-morning continuing up to 6,000 ft in places in the afternoon in a large area from Nottingham to southern Scotland. Further south bases will be a little lower and a tiny bit more prone to spreadout, but really quite a good day there too, though a few light showers are likely in central southern England. Very light westerly winds at height. Far west might be afflicted by top cover.

Wednesday looks weakly useable in the east, but top/medium cover will likely spoil the west. Thursday sees high pressure becoming established over us but it looks a tad damp. Definitely soarable though. The high remains in place through Friday and the weekend, drying out with time with Saturday looking excellent, but Sunday sees a bit of cloud coming in from the east on current runs, so not so good.

Well it’s not too often one refreshes the ladder page and a 900 k pops up at the top. Nice work there, and I can’t quite manage not to say that’s right where I said the best conditions would be.

Today (Friday), an occlusion in the west is bringing rain and cloud to an area west of a line North York Moors—Portland. This will not make much progresses eastwards as it runs against high pressure over the Low Countries, instead tending to fizzle out in-situ. Top cover and some lower stuff will tend to spoil the middle of the country, but if you’re in East Anglia go and enjoy some good climbs to 4,500 ft and as much as 5,000 ft around Norwich, but spreadout is somewhat inevitable. Flying wind about 15 knots from the south.

Saturday is an interesting day with the remains of the occlusion having moved eastwards overnight and a ridge of high pressure building across the country. The new airmass is again rather damp so cloud bases will be mostly low, around 3,000 ft taking its time to rise to 4,000 ft, but these conditions will extend over most of England and Wales with only the far northwest being too cloudy and a bit damp. Best conditions will range from around the North York Moors in the northeast right down into southwest England via Wales, where spreadout should be fairly limited and bases reach to 4,500 ft or more. Trickier areas will be central southern and eastern England where spreadout will be a little more likely, but is not a certainty. Flying winds will be about 10 knots from the northwest, which should result in excellent air in much of Wales and along the southern half of the Southwest peninsula. All in all a good, if not classic, day across a wide area.

Sunday, however, sees a low north of Scotland swing a frontal system down across the country. This will mean a lot of cloud and some light rain for pretty much everyone. Cold again with it too, day maxes looking like only 12-13 °C.

Once in to Monday high pressure weakly begins to build with a maritime westerly airflow across England and Wales, giving a soarable day but tending to spreadout quite quickly. Tuesday looks cloudy and damp (at least at the moment).

You can now register to have new forecasts email directly to you as soon as they’re published, rather than having to visit the blog or subscribe to the RSS feed. Either use the “Register” link near the bottom of the sidebar, or register here.

Only forecasts, i.e. posts in the “Forecast” category, will be emailed to you, so you won’t see “Information” messages such as this one.

Update I had a little accident behind the scenes. If you subscribed before 12.30pm on 13 May login and check that you are still subscribed to the “Forecast” category. If you’re not send me an email and I’ll try and sort it out (link down by the Register link).

A late word about tomorrow; feel it’s needed after bigging it up earlier in the week. Tomorrow (Thursday) sees the good air lying a degree either side of W00100. Here things will get going early, to near 5,000 ft by the end of the morning. However the western half of this strip will tend to overdevelop to showers through the afternoon, with the best conditions becoming confined to the east. That’s not to say the west will be unusable, just that there’ll be plenty more shower-dodging involved with soaring there. Far northwest rather too cloudy and the far southwest likely to see frequent showers. Light southerly (woot! warmer!) winds at all levels.

Friday a no-go with an occlusion bringing cloud, except perhaps at Tibenham where some more localised soaring might be possible before cloud stops play.

Saturday should be soarable for most but far from classic conditions with lowish bases and a tendency to spreadout. More than just local soaring will be possible at most sites though, I’m sure. Sunday a fair bit cloudier; probably too much for soaring, but still good for local training.