Friday
Back | HomeInteresting day today, it looked cracking through the window, if a little slow to get going, but that was just one spot and from the ladder it sounds like it wasn’t necessarily representative.
Tomorrow (Saturday) looks another interesting day too. Cumulus will start to form first in the northwest and west (i.e. Wales and the southwest), and appearing further and further southeast as time goes on, (later edit that might not be in the email) although there’ll be a fair bit of cirrus floating around, which isn’t helpful.
In the southwest expect bases to top out 3,500 ft with sea air encroaching the north of the peninsula. Wales sees bases to 3,500 ft from late morning going to over 4,500 ft in the afternoon—-good. The Northwest is a similar story but not as strong—-bases about 2,500 ft to start going to 4,000 ft in places but staying stubbornly lower in others. Northeast goes to 3,500 ft a little later.
So, midlands and the rest of the east and south, cumulus should appear to 1W by midday and 1E by early afternoon, generally at 3,500 ft at 1W (and down into Kent), going up to 4,500 ft towards Tibbenham. The cumulus will remain at roughly this height or slowly rise, and generally shouldn’t go blue or spreadout. The only thing it will probably do is overdevelop in England west of 1W (not Wales), with showers possible by evening. Winds generally light southerly but check the F214 on the morning.
Sunday, as everyone seems to know, thundery showers. However they now look much less developed, and much further east, than data I saw earlier suggested. Maybe even only up the Channel and off the east coast, and while a low was forecast to develop, current data isn’t so developmental. However it will be a warm, damp airmass, so expect low spreadout stratocumulus rather than soarable conditions. Sorry.
Next week looks rather unsettled with low pressure never far, though the odd (probably somewhat brief) window for soaring should present itself.
