Thursday
Back | HomeLast post for the foreseeable future. It’s been fun to do soaring forecasting again, and useful practice ahead of forecasting for the Bicester Regionals and the Juniors later this summer! More on that in a second post…
Today (Thursday) sees a shield of muck over much of the Midlands and west which is slowly moving away/breaking up, but really all that moisture has done for those parts for the day, and the odd shower will pop up in the southern part of this cloud if the sun reaches the ground. This stuff formed over the seas to south and east and then moved through overnight—-Heathrow had an overcast cloud deck at 700ft at one point.
For the rest of the day, we’re looking at an area northest of a line from Swindon to Liverpool moving west at 10kt, in which there should be cumulus to 4,000ft. I still wouldn’t venture far past Cambridge to the east, and watch out for dead areas beneath high-level cirrus. Bits of the southwest, beyond Exeter, should also be usable for local soaring but unlikely much more.
Friday now has a much stronger signal for showers, developing first from the southwest but probably affecting an area up to a line from Liverpool to London by afternoon. That said, they should be scattered and there’ll be soaring around them, but do be careful as there’s a distinct thunder risk, mainly over the Midlands. Further east, good cumulus to 4,000ft, but low and blue around the east coast again.
Saturday looks rather cloudy and showery over the Midlands, and Sunday sees the shower-risk area a bit further west. Central-to-eastern areas should be soarable both days.
Your Friday forecast is spot on over here in the West Midlands - torrential rain started at 1100hrs. Rasp didn’t get it quite right though (http://tinyurl.com/SHO-bliptoday) and the neighbor’s clothes out on the line have gotten a soaking.
Saturday was a bit bonkers. An area of fog over the south was slower to clear than expected. A small patch over Lasham persisted until lunchtime. When it cleared a ring of towering cu’s became visible all around, with Lasham in a ‘bowl’ of cooler unsoarable air. Some people tried towing into better air away from Lasham. I dunno how they got on. I bailed at 2:30pm as I’d injured myself and local conditions were naff.
In contrast on the way home, in NW London it was a hot day. On my way home my parents reported large hail in Kenton/Harrow (2cm?). In the Queensbury area I got hit by 1cm hailstones and extremely heavy rain causing significant flash flooding, coming above the kerbstones in many places. The lightning was spectacular. The most severe storm I’ve seen in quite a few years. Thunder and lightning carried on for 4 or 5 hours as the storm was very slow moving, although the heavy rain was gone after maybe an hour.