Glidemet

Today (Saturday) will be one of the best wave days in England and Wales for some time, with strong northwesterly winds and relative dry air combining to produce well-marked wave bars (already clearly visible on satellite images). Flying winds will be around 300/40KT with wave bars running perpendicular to this. The best areas will be the usual suspects downwind of the Welsh mountains and the Pennines but I expect people will find smooth, bouyant air across much of southern England too.

In Scotland the air is rather too unstable with frequent showers here.

Sadly Sunday looks much cloudier and much less favourable for wave in general.

So the story of this weekend is going to be the wind. Consistently 30 knots from the east at flying height on each of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The only area which will have respite is the northern half of Scotland, where the winds will be much lighter thanks to a persistent opening up of the isobars here. This will, however, make for consistently good wave conditions at Edensoaring. I would say Brentor too but it looks too damp and cloudy down there. Surface winds will tend to be around 15 knots gusting to 20 or a little more at times from the northeast.

Saturday will see some showers across the south, heaviest towards the south coast. This is thanks to a closed upper low in the Bay of Biscay destabilising the troposphere through this area. Between showers some cumulus at around 4,000 ft, generally southwest of Salisbury Plain. North of the Chilterns, it looks like it will be blue to only 3,000 ft, and only then west of 1W (just really low to the east).

Both Sunday and Monday are much the same story, cloudy with showers in the south and southwest, reaching up as far northeast as the midlands on Monday. The only bright spot (apart from that wave potential) is on Monday, from around Northumbria to the Highlands: good thermal soaring to 4,000 ft here, although that wind won’t be dropping until nearly as far north as Portmoak*.

*Which is an excellent club. Please indulge me while I declare it yet another super-friendly club after visiting it last week. That said Emma T really did go the extra mile, first offering me a lift to Edinburgh airport on my last day, then not (visibly!) minding having to wait for me until past 6pm while I went wave soaring in the evening!

I’m not getting much feedback at the moment (you can reply via comments, email, or now Twitter), although perhaps that’s because you’re all being too polite! My forecasts haven’t exactly been great recently…

But now the grovelling is over, let’s have a look at tomorrow (Wednesday). The cold front that is tickling the northwest of Scotland makes no further progress southeastwards, leaving most of the UK in the murky Continental air we’ve had for the last few days. There’s some hints that cumulus may form at around 5,000 ft between Somerset, through the Midlands and into Cambridgeshire but otherwise it will be blue. The climbs beneath will be very weak—maybe only enough to climb to 3,000 ft. Flying winds about 5 knots from the southeast, and obviously visibility will be very poor.

Thursday might be a fair bit better, but it’s hard enough to forecast the next day accurately. Following days look poor again.

Looking at the various medium-range forecast models, there’s no real sign of a move away from a generally anti-cyclonic flow from the east. The next time a front comes through on a westerly seems to be a long way away…

Tomorrow (Sunday) won’t be much different from today. Remember me talking earlier in the week about those old fronts coming to a halt over the UK? Well they did and this is the result—-a pretty damp airmass.

Expect pretty variable cloud cover across the country first thing, probably less rather than more, except in western Scotland where it will just be more. Then through the morning cumulus will pop off in most areas, bases around 2,500 ft, but going to spreadout very quickly through most of England and Wales. The bits where it may not are roughly between Nottingham and Leeds, along the south coast (Devon looks nice), and eastern Scotland. However a sea breeze front will eat into much of the southwest (but make a nice convergence line along the south coast), it’ll be tending towards being blue in eastern Scotland (could be some nice high bases up there though), but in that bit in the Midlands/northern England, it could be decent, maybe scattered bases at 4,000 ft?

Flying winds almost nil, except again in the southwest where it will be southeasterly 15 knots. Risks: well, just spreadout in all areas including the bits which look decent tonight, and more medium-level cloud seeping across from western Scotland into the east, cutting off the sun

Twitter
Someone (I think it was Bicester’s winch driver, Vicky) came up with the brilliant idea of a glidemet twitter account. So now there is one! I hope to be able to put out quick forecasts and updates much more frequently than on here—-I don’t always have the time to do a full post, but a quick tweet now and then? Much more likely!

After a good day today, tomorrow (Wednesday) looks borderline; the west of the country will definitely have a high sun-blocking overcast as the frontal system currently west of Ireland moves towards the UK. I suspect areas east of a line Newcastle to the Peak District to Sussex will have a bright start to the day. Although topped by some cirrus, there probably will be cumulus as high as 3,500-4,000 ft by midday, it being the same airmass as we had today. However the frontal cloud will steadily move eastwards and I expect the soarable area to be only east of Nottingham to the Thames estuary by 2pm, and then just East Anglia by 4pm. By that stage cloud bases around Norfolk and Suffolk way will be exceeding 5,000 ft, so gliding clubs that way should have a fun day, if in a rather small playground.

Flying winds in the good area 10-15 knots from the southwest, so at least you won’t have the wind to worry about, but the extent of the high top cover ahead of the fronts might be a problem. Always hard to predict cirrus and just what affect it will have.

Thursday sees the fronts parking up over central and western Britain; there’s a small chance of soaring in the far east. Friday isn’t much different; the front doesn’t really go anywhere, it just decays into an area of damper air.

Saturday sees the process continue, with high pressure forming in situ, and by then it might actually brighten up to be soarable in the south and east. Sunday looks better, although the north of the country will probably still be cloudy. In the south there may be fairly low-based cumulus, but the descending inversion may just result in it being low and blue towards the south coast.

Thought I’d do a post… it’s looking quite nice for soaring tomorrow after all . Possibly the first 300 km day in thermals for normal people this year?

So tomorrow (Tuesday), general situation is a high centred southwest of Britain, bringing a moderate northwest flow to most areas. Flying winds generally 20 knots across southern England and Wales, 25 knots further north, and about 30 knots from the west in Scotland. Today’s cold front has, however, brought us an excellent airmass, and cloud bases should blossom at 2,500-3,000 ft tomorrow in pretty much all parts by 10 am. Bases should then rise to 3,500-4,000 ft by noon, with the most favoured areas being the south and east—longest land tracks here. In southern Britain bases should push to about 4,500 ft in the afternoon, with the best area between Wales and the southeast coast, although just south and east of Dartmoor and eastern Scotland should be good too (wind permitting up north, of course). Generally things should keep going until about 6 pm before falling apart, although the wind will probably start tearing up the weakening thermals before that.

Spreadout shouldn’t be an issue anywhere; while it might become a little congested in eastern parts, things should readily cycle. Plenty of wave influence in Scotland too, although that should be constructive rather than destructive. However high cloud will begin to move in from the west during the afternoon, which will lead to a loss of thermal strength Wales and westwards, but the eastern half of the country won’t be affected until early evening, so don’t be too put off.

Wednesday sees a frontal system coming across in the afternoon; quite poor everywhere except perhaps the far east (Tibenham?). Probably not very wet but cloudy. Thursday very similar as the said frontal system becomes slow-moving as it butts up against the high cell, now displaced to be centred over the near Continent. Some hope of local soaring where the sun breaks through on Friday. The weekend looks pretty good.