Glidemet

Feeling a bit unloved on the feedback front. I do read back through the ladder after a day I forecast for to get a feel for how it went, but direct feedback about my forecasts via the comments on the website are invaluable. I’m guessing quite a few of you now only receive emails so don’t visit the site as much!

…looking ahead at Wednesday. A very good day in pretty much all of England and Wales, and not bad in eastern Scotland too —- so a large area to play in. Cumulus established at 3,500 ft by 10am, rising to a peak of in excess of 6,000 ft east of the Pennines, and comfortably over 4,000ft elsewhere. By late afternoon bases should be over 6,000ft over much of the Midlands and the southeast but by then thermal strength will be tailing off. Winds ranging from 20 kts from the west over Scotland, down to 5-10 kts from the northwest over Southwest England. Some spread out likely, but relatively small areas exhibiting cycling rather than stops-play stuff. Perhaps a bit thicker in the southwest. Some cirrus in the west later but not much.

Doesn’t sound bad does it?

Tomorrow (Saturday) sees the first cumulus appearing really quite early, by 9am in most western areas and few spots elsewhere too, forming at around 2-3,000 ft. The cumulus will be 3-4,000 ft by 11am, highest to the north and east of Nottingham. However that may be largely it — I think cu will reach 4,000 ft and locally 5,000 ft over most of the UK tomorrow, but probably not go a lot higher until mid- or late-afternoon. Climb rates a corresponding 3-4 kts on the whole. Some spread out now looks probable, starting in the west midlands first by late morning and then spreading south and east to reach roughly London by 2pm, but it certainly be cycling and not an overcast. East Anglia and Southwest England should keep good cumulus all day. Winds, about 10-15 kt from the north south of Birmingham, and northwesterly or westerly 15 kt to the north. Cumulus not dying out until 6pm, when it will probably be at around 5,000 ft in most areas. Shouldn’t be any problems with high cloud or anything like that. A pretty good day then.

Sunday looks dead good — south of the Pennines. Cumulus perhaps higher than on Saturday, but winds getting up to 20 kt from the southwest over Birmingham, but near-zero on the south coast. Blueing out in much of the southwest and later over the Cotswolds and east.

Monday, yuk.

So tomorrow (Friday) has certainly lost its promise — it now looks too cloudy. However Saturday looks excellent — wall-to-wall 5,000+ ft cloud bases in a 15 kts northerly (in the south) or northwesterly (in the north) from early to late, across pretty much all of England and Wales. Really good. Sunday, not quite so good, only good cumulus south of Manchester, and the wind more like 20 kts from the west.

To say that Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like being good days. All have problems in one way or another, and it looks like the good stuff will be limited to the south of the UK much of the time, but there’s promise. Saturday maybe looks the best day at the moment.

A good day tomorrow (Sunday) after days of showers. Mostly clear early in the morning, with cumulus soon appearing—-a fair amount is likely, at 3-3,500 ft, by 10am, across pretty much the whole UK. Only Dorset, Somerset, and west will have to wait a bit longer. By midday, in an area stretching from the central Highlands, to Cornwall, to Sussex and back up via about Nottingham cloud bases will be over 4,000 ft, with good strong climbs of 3-5 knots underneath. East of this “good” zone the cloud will be tending to spread out and/or go to light showers. By 3pm most areas will be spreading out, but usually cycling or with brighter areas still about. Cloud bases rising to above 5,000 ft by now in the favoured Shropshire to Dorset-Hampshire zone. Even at 5pm there should still be good lines of energy available, generally aligned north-south, with things dying out after 6pm.

Winds at flying height will be fairly brisk, around 15 knots from the north, sometimes a little more, mainly towards the east.

Looks a rather good day all told. Shouldn’t be any issues with high cloud or, away from the east, showers.